🇵🇾 Paraguay, the long game and the sharp edge

A qualification built on clean sheets, one-goal margins, and a quiet habit of landing punches in the biggest moments.

Introduction

Paraguay does not arrive with fireworks; it arrives with the lights turned down and the locks double-checked. The Albirroja’s story, told through these months of qualifiers, reads like a sequence of tight corridors: doors that only open with patience, matches that only break when someone insists on the second ball, the next duel, the last run. It is not the kind of path that inflates headlines—until the headline suddenly has to include a heavyweight falling in Asunción.

There is a particular atmosphere to Paraguay when the score sits at 0–0 for long stretches: the sense that the game is being squeezed rather than played. Opponents get fewer clean looks, the clock becomes another defender, and every restart feels like a set piece in disguise. Even when the ball is elsewhere, the match keeps gravitating back to the same question: who blinks first?

Then the numbers land, and they fit the eye test. Paraguay finished 6th in the CONMEBOL table with 28 points from 18 matches, with a record of 7 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses. The goal line is modest—14 scored, 10 conceded, +4 difference—but the defensive story is loud: conceding only 10 goals in an 18-game South American marathon is a statement of control, structure, and emotional discipline.

The hinges of the campaign are visible on the calendar. It begins with a blunt signal on 7 September 2023: 0–0 at home to Peru in Ciudad del Este, a match that already hinted at the identity—hard to beat, difficult to open. The first fracture came on 12 September 2023 in Maturín, a 1–0 loss to Venezuela decided by a penalty at 90+3'. That kind of ending can tilt a cycle; Paraguay absorbed it and kept going.

And then, the turn: 10 September 2024, Paraguay 1–0 Brazil in Asunción, a result that re-labels a team in the eyes of the continent. Later, the campaign’s loudest proof arrived on 14 November 2024: Paraguay 2–1 Argentina, also in Asunción, a win with personality—conceding early, responding quickly, then slamming the door. The closing act carried its own signature: 9 September 2025, Peru 0–1 Paraguay in Lima, a late winner and a clean sheet, the kind of away performance that turns “solid” into “qualified.”

If this Paraguay has a theme, it is not glamour; it is repeatability. Low concession. Many matches decided by a single goal. A rhythm built to survive South America first—and then, to make a World Cup group feel like three separate finals.

The Road Through Qualifiers

CONMEBOL qualifying is the long-distance race where sprinting gets you nowhere if you cannot keep your shape in the altitude, the humidity, the hostility, and the late pressure. Over 18 matchdays, Paraguay’s path reads like a manual on accumulation: never letting a bad week become a bad month, protecting the defensive base, and grabbing defining wins at home. This campaign does not look like a team that chased perfect performances; it looks like a team that chased points without losing itself.

The final table places Paraguay 6th with 28 points, tied on points with Colombia, Uruguay, and Brazil, but separated by goal difference and the fine margins of results. That cluster is the real context: Paraguay did not qualify by dominating the weak; it survived in the traffic of strong teams. Uruguay ended with the same points and a much bigger goal difference, Brazil too, and Colombia as well. Paraguay’s advantage was not volume; it was steadiness—7 wins and only 4 losses in a competition where losing streaks can bury you.

The defensive headline is the core. Paraguay conceded 10 goals in 18 matches—barely more than a goal every two games. Only Ecuador conceded fewer (5), and Argentina conceded the same number (10). For a team that scored 14, that defensive ratio is not a nice detail; it is the entire competitive model. Paraguay did not need to score twice often. It needed to score once, sometimes, and treat that as enough.

The match list shows the identity in sequence. Early on, there is a stretch of narrow outcomes and clean sheets: 0–0 with Peru, then 1–0 loss in Venezuela, 1–0 loss in Argentina, 1–0 win over Bolivia, 0–0 in Chile. Five of the first six matchdays featured either 0–0 or 1–0 scorelines. That is not coincidence; that is a team living comfortably in small margins—sometimes punished, sometimes rewarded, always recognizable.

Home became the platform for the big moments. Beating Brazil 1–0 on 10 September 2024 and Argentina 2–1 on 14 November 2024 is not merely a pair of wins; it is a pair of psychological pillars. In both cases, Paraguay proved it could handle elite pressure without needing the match to become chaotic. And when chaos did arrive—like the 2–2 draw in El Alto against Bolivia on 19 November 2024, with goals flying late—Paraguay still found a way to leave with a point, scoring at 90+1' to rescue the result.

The away profile is a study in restraint. Draws at Uruguay (0–0), Ecuador (0–0), Chile (0–0) and a gritty 2–2 in Colombia show a team built to survive hostile nights. The losses away were also narrow: 1–0 at Venezuela, 1–0 at Argentina, 1–0 at Brazil. There is no collapse here, no three- or four-goal bruising that leaves scars on a goal difference. Paraguay’s away defeats were one-goal slips; their away points were earned through control and resistance.

And then, there is the closing stretch, the part of qualifying that usually eats teams alive. Paraguay closed with a 0–0 at home to Ecuador on 4 September 2025 and then a 1–0 win away to Peru on 9 September 2025. That is not a glamorous finish, but it is a telling one: two matches, two clean sheets, four points, and a final push delivered with the same identity the team carried in September 2023. Consistency as a weapon.

Table 1: Paraguay matches in CONMEBOL qualifying

Date	Matchday	Opponent	Venue	Result	Goalscorers	Stadium and city
7 September 2023	1	Peru	Home	0–0	No goals	Stadium Antonio Aranda, Ciudad del Este
12 September 2023	2	Venezuela	Away	0–1	Rondón 90+3' pen	Stadium Monumental, Maturín
12 October 2023	3	Argentina	Away	0–1	Otamendi 3'	Stadium Monumental, Buenos Aires
17 October 2023	4	Bolivia	Home	1–0	Sanabria 69'	Stadium Defensores del Chaco, Asunción
16 November 2023	5	Chile	Away	0–0	No goals	Stadium Monumental, Santiago
21 November 2023	6	Colombia	Home	0–1	Borré 11' pen	Stadium Defensores del Chaco, Asunción
6 September 2024	7	Uruguay	Away	0–0	No goals	Stadium Centenario, Montevideo
10 September 2024	8	Brazil	Home	1–0	D. Gómez 20'	Stadium Defensores del Chaco, Asunción
10 October 2024	9	Ecuador	Away	0–0	No goals	Stadium Rodrigo Paz Delgado, Quito
15 October 2024	10	Venezuela	Home	2–1	Sanabria 59', 74'; Aramburu 25'	Stadium Defensores del Chaco, Asunción
14 November 2024	11	Argentina	Home	2–1	Sanabria 19', Alderete 47'; La. Martínez 11'	Stadium Defensores del Chaco, Asunción
19 November 2024	12	Bolivia	Away	2–2	E. Vaca 15', Terceros 80' pen; Almirón 71', Enciso 90+1'	Stadium Municipal, El Alto
20 March 2025	13	Chile	Home	1–0	Alderete 60'	Stadium Defensores del Chaco, Asunción
25 March 2025	14	Colombia	Away	2–2	Díaz 1', Durán 13'; Alonso 45+4', Enciso 62'	Stadium Metropolitano, Barranquilla
5 June 2025	15	Uruguay	Home	2–0	Galarza 13', Enciso 81' pen	Stadium Defensores del Chaco, Asunción
10 June 2025	16	Brazil	Away	0–1	Vinícius Júnior 44'	Neo Química Arena, São Paulo
4 September 2025	17	Ecuador	Home	0–0	No goals	Stadium Defensores del Chaco, Asunción
9 September 2025	18	Peru	Away	1–0	Galarza 78'	Stadium Nacional, Lima

The table context is just as revealing as the match list. Paraguay’s 28 points place them inside a crowded band of contenders, but their goal profile is distinctive: 14 goals for is lower than the surrounding giants, while 10 against is elite. In other words: Paraguay did not win the race by running faster; it won by falling less often.

Table 2: CONMEBOL standings

Pos	Team	Points	Played	Wins	Draws	Losses	GF	GA	GD
1	Argentina	38	18	12	2	4	31	10	21
2	Ecuador	29	18	8	8	2	14	5	9
3	Colombia	28	18	7	7	4	28	18	10
4	Uruguay	28	18	7	7	4	22	12	10
5	Brazil	28	18	8	4	6	24	17	7
6	Paraguay	28	18	7	7	4	14	10	4
7	Bolivia	20	18	6	2	10	17	35	-18
8	Venezuela	18	18	4	6	8	18	28	-10
9	Peru	12	18	2	6	10	6	21	-15
10	Chile	11	18	2	5	11	9	27	-18

From that full table, two comparisons matter most for Paraguay’s performance profile. First, compare Paraguay to Brazil: same points, but Brazil scored 24 and conceded 17. Paraguay scored 14 and conceded 10. Same output in points, wildly different route. Second, compare Paraguay to Ecuador: Ecuador finished 2nd with 29 points, only one point above Paraguay, with 14 scored and just 5 conceded. Paraguay’s “low-scoring, low-conceding” identity is not an accident; it resembles the most efficient profiles in the table.

The segmentation reinforces it. Paraguay had 11 matches that ended with at least one side on zero goals: six 0–0 draws, plus five 1–0 results (wins or losses). That is 11 out of 18 living inside the narrowest scorelines. Even their more open matches—2–1 vs Venezuela, 2–1 vs Argentina, 2–2 vs Bolivia, 2–2 in Colombia, 2–0 vs Uruguay—still never drifted into chaos beyond two goals conceded. The ceiling for opponents remained low.

There is also an important detail in the timing of goals that shaped the narrative. Paraguay scored winners late away in Lima (78') and rescued points late in El Alto (90+1'). They also conceded a decisive penalty at 90+3' in Maturín. Late moments were not a bonus; they were a recurring battleground. The difference between a qualifying campaign and a qualifying heartbreak often lives there, in the minutes when legs are heavy and decisions are rushed. Paraguay lived in those minutes and came out mostly intact.

How they play

Paraguay’s identity is written in the scorelines: short games, controlled damage, and an insistence that opponents earn every inch. Conceding 10 in 18 matches is not merely “good defending”; it signals that Paraguay consistently keeps matches within a single-goal swing. That changes everything: it keeps points available until the end, it protects confidence through difficult stretches, and it makes every set piece, every long throw, every half-chance feel like a genuine lever.

The attacking output—14 goals in 18 matches—suggests a team that does not rely on constant chance creation to win. Paraguay’s wins often arrive by a single strike and then management: 1–0 vs Bolivia, 1–0 vs Brazil, 1–0 vs Chile, 1–0 away vs Peru. Even the most symbolic victories stayed compact. Against Argentina at home, Paraguay won 2–1, but that match still fits the theme: respond to adversity, then compress the rest.

The rhythm of Paraguay’s games shows a clear preference for tight endings. Six 0–0 draws mean Paraguay is comfortable playing without a goal on the board. That matters in tournament football, where panic is contagious. Paraguay’s qualifiers indicate a team that can tolerate the psychological noise of a deadlocked match—and still find one moment, like Alderete’s 60' winner vs Chile or Galarza’s 78' away in Peru, to turn a draw into a win.

Goal distribution, as far as the match records show, points to a small group carrying decisive moments but not a single-player dependency. Sanabria appears repeatedly in critical wins: the 1–0 vs Bolivia and the brace in the 2–1 vs Venezuela, plus a goal in the win over Argentina. Enciso appears in key situations too: a late rescue goal in El Alto, a goal in Barranquilla, and a penalty to seal a 2–0 over Uruguay. Add Alderete scoring in a 1–0 and also in the 2–1 over Argentina. That spread matters: different matches, different scorers, similar outcome.

Vulnerabilities, in this campaign, appear less like structural collapse and more like the razor’s edge of low margins. Paraguay lost three away matches 1–0 and also lost 0–1 at home to Colombia via an early penalty. When your model leans on clean sheets and one-goal wins, a single set piece, a single penalty, or a single lapse can become decisive because the attacking volume is not built to chase two goals routinely. The Venezuela loss at 90+3' is the clearest warning: if the match stays in the margin, the last action can rewrite ninety minutes.

Yet the same margin can be a weapon. Paraguay’s ability to hold 0–0 away to Uruguay and Ecuador, and then beat both Uruguay and Brazil at home without conceding, suggests a team that understands game states. It does not need the match to be beautiful; it needs the match to be playable, and then it needs one moment—sometimes early like Gómez at 20' vs Brazil, sometimes late like Galarza at 78' in Lima.

If there is one tactical conclusion allowed by these numbers, it is this: Paraguay plays for games that stay within reach, and then trusts its timing. That is not passive; it is deliberate. It is a style that can look quiet until the scoreboard confirms it was never quiet at all.

The Group at the World Cup

Paraguay’s World Cup group assignment sets up a narrative that will feel familiar to anyone who watched their qualifiers: three matches where controlling the margin will be the first objective, and converting one key moment will be the second. The group is Group D, and the fixture offers a clear geographical and logistical layer too: two matches at Levi's Stadium in San Francisco and one at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.

The opponents are a mix of known and not-yet-defined. Match 4 is a direct meeting with the United States. Match 60 brings Australia. And between them sits a match listed against a coded opponent: D4. That code must be translated into what it actually means in human terms: Rival by definition, it will come from the UEFA play-off Route C, with the opponent emerging from Slovakia, Kosovo, Turkey, or Romania. The identity of that team changes the scouting file, but the match plan for Paraguay should not change dramatically: keep the game tight, avoid gifting the first goal, and make the match a test of patience.

Table: Paraguay group stage matches

Date	Stadium	City	Opponent
12 June 2026	SoFi Stadium	Los Angeles	United States
19 June 2026	Levi's Stadium	San Francisco	Rival by definition, will come from the UEFA play-off Route C: Slovakia, Kosovo, Turkey, or Romania.
25 June 2026	Levi's Stadium	San Francisco	Australia

The opener against the United States on 12 June 2026 is the kind of match that can set the emotional temperature of the entire group. For Paraguay, the qualifiers suggest a blueprint: treat the first hour as a negotiation, keep the scoreboard clean, and resist the temptation to overextend in search of early heroics. Paraguay’s most repeatable strength is their ability to stay alive in a match. Against an opponent that will likely have energy and momentum, Paraguay’s job is to turn that into frustration.

Pronóstico: empate.

The second match on 19 June 2026, against the UEFA play-off Route C qualifier, is where group football often tilts. It is the classic “middle fixture” that becomes a pressure cooker: not as ceremonial as the opener, not as potentially calculable as the last round. Paraguay’s history in these qualifiers shows comfort in these atmospheres—0–0 away at Uruguay, 0–0 away at Ecuador, 2–2 away at Colombia—matches where the opponent’s spells do not become goals. The key, again, is not to label the rival by strength, but to define the task: Paraguay must impose its pace and avoid conceding first, because chasing games is not where their numbers shine.

Pronóstico: gana Paraguay.

The closer against Australia on 25 June 2026, also in San Francisco, could be either a decisive match for qualification or a match for positioning. Paraguay’s qualifiers give a clear hint of what they need in high-stakes finales: emotional control and concentration in the last fifteen minutes. Australia as a label suggests physicality and rhythm changes, but Paraguay’s own data points to a team that can live in duels and second balls without losing their shape. If Paraguay enter the last match needing a result, their campaign shows they can protect a one-goal advantage—provided they get it.

Pronóstico: empate.

Claves de clasificación

• Keep the concession line low: the campaign’s foundation was 10 goals allowed in 18 qualifiers, and that standard travels well.
• Turn at least one 0–0 into a 1–0: Paraguay’s most profitable habit was winning without needing multiple goals.
• Protect late minutes: decisive actions arrived at 90+3' against and 90+1' for; the last phase must be managed as its own mini-match.
• Make home-style discipline travel: away clean sheets and narrow losses show Paraguay can survive; converting one away draw into a win is the separator.

Editorial opinion

Paraguay’s qualification is not a romantic story, but it is a serious one. The numbers speak of a team that understands tournament oxygen: conceding little, staying in matches, and refusing to be dragged into the kind of chaos where reputations win more than decisions. That is not a limitation; it is a competitive choice. In a World Cup group, that choice can be worth a round of knockouts.

The temptation will be to demand a more aggressive Paraguay because the opponents have bigger spotlights. But this cycle proved something else: Paraguay does not need to win the aesthetic battle to win the points battle. The real question is whether they can add just a little more scoring frequency without breaking the defensive spine that carried them here.

There is, however, a concrete warning that cannot be ignored, because it already happened once and it can happen again: Venezuela 1–0 Paraguay on 12 September 2023, decided by a penalty at 90+3'. When you build your campaign on narrow margins, late discipline is not a detail—it is the difference between a draw that keeps the group balanced and a defeat that forces you to chase the next match.

Paraguay’s best version is the one that treats every minute after 75' as a protected zone: no cheap fouls, no rushed clearances, no emotional bargains with the referee, no unnecessary risks in the first pass out. If they keep doing what brought them here—quiet control, stubborn defending, and timely scoring—then Group D won’t feel like a stage. It will feel like a corridor again. And Paraguay, more than most, has learned how to walk those corridors without blinking.